AGE STRUCTURE AND VIOLENT CRIME:A DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS OF YOUTH VIOLENCE IN BENIN METROPOLIS, NIGERIA

Abstract

Youth violence in Nigeria has drawn sustained scholarly and policy attention amid persistent unemployment, widening economic precarity, and a marked youth bulge. Benin Metropolis, a cultural hub and migration corridor with a complex pattern of urbanization and crime, provides a particularly instructive context. This study examines how the age structure among young people aged 15-29 shapes the prevalence, pattern, and risk of violent crime in Benin Metropolis. Drawing on youth bulge, relative deprivation, social disorganization, and routine activity theories in an integrated analytical framework, the study develops an empirical strategy integrating secondary administrative records and a population-based youth survey to estimate age-structured patterns of violent offending and victimization. Drawing on data from the National Youth Policy, UNODC, and ACLED incident records for Edo State, the study synthesizes youth-weighted age structures, unemployment and school-to-work transitions, and neighborhood disorder as enabling conditions for violence. The study used multilevel modeling framework where individual-level factors are nested within neighborhood-level characteristics to explain variation in violent crime risk across localities of Benin Metropolis. To illustrate, the study incorporates descriptive evidence from extant studies on youth violence in Benin City and security incident statistics reported for Ede State. This study offers theoretically integrated model connecting age structure to violent crime; operational measurement plan for youth-centric risk and protective factors; an empirical design ready for field implementation in Benin Metropolis; and policy implications tailored to municipal and state agencies, emphasizing targeted employment and youth mediation programmes, among others. This provides a replicable template for Nigeria's cities where rapid demographic change intersects with urban insecurity. Youth is operationalized as persons aged 15-29; violent crime encompasses homicide, armed robbery, aggravated assault, sexual violence, and cult-related clashes; and the primary unit of analysis is individuals nested within neighborhoods.